% Spread in Population |
# Of Cases |
# Of Hospitalizations |
# Of Hospitalizations (Flattened Curve) |
# Of ICU Cases |
# Of ICU Cases (Flattened Curve) |
# Of Deaths |
Current Spread of 0.00000% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00001% |
734 |
147 |
34 |
37 |
9 |
0 |
0.0001% |
7,345 |
1,469 |
343 |
367 |
86 |
0 |
0.001% |
73,446 |
14,689 |
3,427 |
3,672 |
857 |
0 |
0.01% |
734,458 |
146,892 |
34,275 |
36,723 |
8,569 |
0 |
0.1% |
7,344,580 |
1,468,916 |
342,747 |
367,229 |
85,687 |
0 |
1% |
73,445,800 |
14,689,160 |
3,427,471 |
3,672,290 |
856,868 |
0 |
10% |
734,458,000 |
146,891,600 |
34,274,707 |
36,722,900 |
8,568,677 |
0 |
100% |
7,344,580,000 |
1,468,916,000 |
342,747,067 |
367,229,000 |
85,686,767 |
0 |
Assumed Spread of 0.0000% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
In a scenario where spread is contained to 0.1% of the population of world, 7,344,580 people would be affected, 1,468,916 people would require hospitalization and 367,229 people would require critical care in ICU. If we manage to flatten the curve over 3 months, peak hospitalizations would reduce to 342,747 and ICU cases to 85,687 per month.
If the spread is higher and 1% of the population of world contracts the virus 73,445,800 people would be affected, 14,689,160 people would require hospitalization and 3,672,290 people would require critical care in ICU. If we manage to flatten the curve over 3 months, peak hospitalizations would reduce to 3,427,471 and ICU cases to 856,868 per month.
If there a wider spread with 10% of the population of world contracts the virus 734,458,000 people would be affected, 146,891,600 people would require hospitalization and 36,722,900 people would require critical care in ICU. If we manage to flatten the curve over 3 months, peak hospitalizations would reduce to 34,274,707 and ICU cases to 8,568,677 per month.
Under the assumed spread scenario with 0.0000% of the population of world contracting the virus 0 people would contract the disease, 0 people would require hospitalization and 0 people would require critical care in ICU. If we manage to flatten the curve over 3 months, peak hospitalizations would reduce to 0 and ICU cases to 0.
The above numbers assume 20% of the affected people get hospitalized, 5% of the affected people are admitted to ICU. And to flatten the curve, we assume the hospitalization and ICU cases are evenly spread for the duration of 3 months with average hospitalization lasting 21 days. Readers are invited to change these numbers in the text boxes over the chart and come up with their own estimates.